FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) - Rainfall. That’s a hard to find commodity this Autumn in Kansas City. Can you see where this blog is headed? Yes, the subject matter is dry.

For instance, did you know that since September 1st, KC has only seen a little more than two inches of rain? That’s way below average for that time period. And the recent dry spell has put us below average for yearly rainfall.

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Speaking of dry, did you know that since September 1st we’ve had two dry spells longer than 14 days. Dry skies, warm winds and above average temperatures have dried out our soils around Kansas City.

We’ve been watching the drought monitor expand across the Kansas and now abnormally dry weather is being recorded across much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Moderate drought has crept into parts of Miami and Franklin and Anderson counties. Severe drought is now showing up in southwest Missouri near Springfield and Joplin.

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How does this dry spell compare historically? If we look at precipitation, rain & snow, in a time frame from September 1st to November 3rd, this Autumn ranks as the 9th driest Fall on record. Here’s a look at the top ten driest September 1st through November 3rd time frames.

1) 1956 1.04”

2) 1937 1.36”

3) 1891 1.42”

4) 1939 1.49”

5) 1895 1.55”

6) 1906 1.62”

7) 1897 2.13”

8) 1952 2.29”

9) 2020 2.35”

10) 1963 2.42”

We’re currently in a six-day dry spell that will likely stretch to 10 days before we see our next chance of rain. There is a chance of rain next Monday and Tuesday. We have higher confidence in rain next week because the storm is already showing up in the Pacific Ocean. Here’s what it looked like Wednesday afternoon.

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The storm is forecast to dig into the desert southwest this weekend. The location of the storm will put it into a position where it will be able to tap into Pacific moisture and start feeding that into the middle of the country starting Sunday. The Chiefs play Sunday at Arrowhead. The game will likely be dry, but the sky will be overcast, and a strong southwesterly wind will blow through the stadium and also above the stadium.

Starting Monday, the moisture will begin interacting with a cold front and we should see rain, possibly thunderstorms, continuing overnight into the day on Tuesday. The graphic below shows areas that could see heavy rainfall. And by heavy we mean more than an inch of rain, possibly up to two inches of rain.

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Next week’s storm appears to signal a weather pattern change as we head into the middle of November. The upper level winds are strengthening, and this will result in the possibility of more storms moving through the center of the country. The extended, eight to 14-day rainfall outlook reflects this. Look at how much of the country has a favorable forecast for above average rainfall.

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That includes Kansas City. And if you’re worried about snow, it doesn’t appear that you need to as temperatures are forecast to be above average at the same time precipitation is above average. That should give most of the Midwest a better chance of rain than snow. Let’s hope because, as I said at the start of the blog, rain has been a tough commodity to come by lately.

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