Another warm and sunny day in Kansas City. Highs topped out near 90 and the humidity is running on the extremely muggy side. Yep, it’s the recipe for the potential of strong or severe thunderstorms on Thursday!
And still looks like we need to keep an eye on the sky Thursday afternoon. Here’s the latest “Severe Weather Risk” outlook.
The Storm Prediction Center issued this outlook early Wednesday. A slight risk means scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within the area shaded in yellow. That means thunderstorms should not be wide-spread but any isolated thunderstorm could be intense.
Fortunately, these types of thunderstorms don’t last long as they are prone to move rapidly. Still we have to be on guard for a tornado or two, strong or damaging wind gusts and quarter-sized hail if not slightly larger.
Here's a timeline of the thunderstorms. I’m showing a high-resolution forecast model that is tailored toward forecasting thunderstorms. This animation will show simulated radar images starting around noon Thursday and ending early Friday morning.
The highest risk of severe thunderstorms appears to come between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. The models are suggesting the strongest thunderstorms will form just ahead of the cold front and quickly move southeast into southeastern Kansas, southwest Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. This means you’re Thursday evening plans in Kansas City may not be a washout. In other words, don’t cancel your practices or performances yet.
Many of us could see drier skies by 7 p.m. However, the rain that falls could be heavy and leave many ball fields and parks water-logged. All this humidity has to go somewhere, and it may fall to the ground in the form of a swampy rain. Just look at how much rain the short-range high-resolution computer data generates for this storm.
The good news is the rain is long gone by Friday morning and the first half of the weekend looks very nice. We will get a short break from the heat and the humidity until Sunday when it starts to heat right back up.
Several warm and humid days are lining up for next week. Who knows, we might be talking about another round of potentially strong thunderstorms at the end of next week too. As they say in TV, stay tuned.