The next couple of days will be a chance to catch our collective breaths. Winter takes a breather and we get a chance to get outside and enjoy some sunshine and mild temperatures.
High temperatures should be in the 50s Wednesday and 50s for the first half of Thursday. Just take a look at the Winter Weather Advisories and Warnings map. It tells the story of a more tranquil mid-week weather pattern.
The Weather Advisories in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan expire Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning.
Tuesday’s brisk, westerly winds over Kansas City are bringing a chill to the air right now, but Wednesday those westerly winds will shift to the south and bring in an air mass that features highs in the 50s.
We might be able to squeeze another half day of 50s out of Thursday before the next chunk of cold air barrels into the metro Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
The graphic below shows the cold front’s forecasted position Thursday at 1 p.m.
The next couple of days will be a great chance to get the grime off the cars. I’m sure carwashes will be crowded. If you miss the chance to wash the car you may have to wait a week or longer.
This next blast of cold air appears to be sticking around into the middle of next week and it’s bringing with it at least two, if not three, chances for more snow. The first chance of snow arrives Friday.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Friday’s storm looks more like a wave of energy passing over Kansas and Missouri. Faster moving air within the jet stream causes the air to rise and this small disturbance should generate some light snow.
I don’t like to post snowfall accumulation this far in advance of an event. But these types of disturbances generally produce a dusting to two inches of snow and that’s what the Global Forecast System model or GFS shows for the first round of snow starting Friday afternoon and ending early Saturday morning.
So I think, based off of meteorology, climatology and computer guidance, that Friday’s snow should end up in the dusting to two inch range. Let’s move on to Saturday night and Sunday’s snow chance. Think of Friday’s storm as the movie preview before the feature presentation. Below is a snapshot of what the weather pattern could look like late Saturday night.
The big take away from the above graphic should be 1) The blue arrows and how they dip or make that “U” shape over Kansas City and 2) The “L”. I placed the “L” here to show how this storm becomes an upper level low pressure system over the Midwest. That means, it’s stronger, has more spin which creates more lift, will take longer to move through the region and in the end, this kind of system usually produces more snow.
So, the second system should produce more snow than the Friday wave. Again, I don’t like to show snowfall totals this far out, but the GFS seems to have a handle on the amount of snow possible with Saturday night’s “feature presentation.”
So the two storms combined could dump a total of four inches of fresh snow on the region over the weekend. Maybe more over far northwestern Missouri. And it looks like all snow this time. The atmosphere should support snow from top to bottom. Of course, we will update the forecast throughout the rest of the week and into the weekend.
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Whew! Are you ready for more snow? Catch your breath over the next couple of days because it doesn’t look like Winter is even close to over.