FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) - If you like change, you’re going to love the next week of weather.
We aren’t talking about big temperature swings. No, the changes ahead have more to do with the sky. For instance, Tuesday afternoon featured impeccable weather with highs in the 70s. Truly a, “not a cloud in the sky,” kind of day.
But Wednesday, Wednesday looks like the opposite. There is a chance, that by Wednesday afternoon, most of the Kansas City area is experiencing a steady, soaking rain. And, if by chance, it’s not raining then it will likely be overcast with a damp feel to the air. The storm that brings the unsettled weather for the middle of the week was spinning over the four corners Tuesday afternoon. The four corners of Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico.
The upper level storm is forecast to spin up a surface low over west Texas. The upper low and the surface storm will likely follow the yellow line I’ve drawn on the above graphic. The storm will move across the Red River, through the Ark-La-Tex and wind up in the lower Mississippi river valley by Thursday.
The main storm track across southern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana is the focus of an “Enhanced” threat of severe weather on Wednesday. Kansas City is far enough away from the main storm that we do not have a severe weather threat on Wednesday.
We might be far enough north that a distinct line develops where some of us don’t see any rain at all. Where could that be? It might be Interstate 70 but there is a better chance for the rain/no rain line to be closer to highway 36.
Wednesday’s storm is just the beginning of an active-ish weather pattern that will take us through early next week. I say active-ish because, while there are rain chances, there is a chance some of us don’t see much rain at all. I will go over rain amounts in a minute. But first take a look at the weather pattern that is setting up for later this week.
Look for the sky to clear on Thursday with another stellar weather day setting up. But starting Thursday evening, the winds aloft will orient themselves from the northwest. A series of fast-moving upper level storms will ride these jet stream currents down the Missouri River Valley bringing Kansas City chances for rain, perhaps through the weekend.
The first disturbance arrives Friday. This system will drag a cold front into the region, triggering off and rain showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the day Friday. This storm will become stronger east of Kansas City bringing heavier rain to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio river valleys.
Once again, behind this storm, the sky will clear making way for a gorgeous but cooler Saturday. Another wave, this one appears weaker, will move into northeastern Kansas and western Missouri Sunday afternoon. It might just bring a blanket of clouds to the area but, at this point, we can’t rule out a few scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.
These repeated storms will bring at least two inches of rain to parts of the southern plains and Ohio River Valley by Monday. As you can see on the map below, a large part of Missouri will see more than an inch of rain.
For a closer look at how the rain breaks down closer to KC, I’ve included this map below. I’ve plotted the European model data for rainfall amounts. It shows much of the Kansas City metro area with at least an inch of rain, if not more.
If the Sunday showers don’t materialize, just wait. Another disturbance is showing up in the data that suggests another chance of rain on Monday. Certainly, that time of year for April showers, and changeable skies. You know what they say in Kansas and Missouri, if you don’t like the weather just wait, it’ll change.