(KCTV) – It’s heating up across the area, and the humidity is also rising. It’s a great set up for severe weather in parts of our region, namely northwest Missouri, far northeast Kansas, southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa.
A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for Atchison, Holt and Nodaway counties in Missouri until 10 p.m.
Check out the visible satellite image from around 3 p.m. Thunderstorms were starting to fire up in an area of high instability.
That area of high instability is the area where the potential energy for thunderstorms is greatest as we head into the evening hours. Plus, there’s a weak front that will help to initiate thunderstorms.
Here is a look at the available energy broken down into four categories with red and dark red being the highest.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed an enhanced severe weather risk over this area. That means we could find numerous severe thunderstorms in the orangish shaded area shown on the graphic below. That area covers places such as Maryville and Bethany. A few of thunderstorms could be intense persist for a long time.
The enhanced area of severe weather also comes with the threat of quarter to golf ball sized hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes.
A slight risk of severe weather surrounds the enhanced risk and that includes the KC metro area, but it may not rain at all in Kansas City.
What!? Then why the severe weather outlook? The outlook is there because we have such high CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy values, and there is a chance that any thunderstorms that fire over northwest Missouri could generate strong thunderstorms farther south closer to KC.
The cold front is too far away from Kansas City for thunderstorms to form here, so, as of this afternoon, a stormy night doesn’t look likely.
Here’s what I mean, take a look at the North American High Resolution Model, a model that performed well this past weekend in regard to our severe thunderstorms and severe weather.
The time stamp for this radar simulation for 8 p.m. Tuesday evening. At 8 p.m., the thunderstorms are already beginning to weaken. Why?
1) Thunderstorms initially feed off of the high instability in the area. Some of that energy will be used to trigger these thunderstorms.
2) The rest of the energy will slowly diminish once the sun goes down, so it looks like these thunderstorms will diminish the closer they get to Kansas City.
There is a chance, here in the KC metro, that we get nothing more than a shower or few sprinkles.
Yes, it’s a great set up for severe weather, but without a cold front closer to Kansas City, it will likely end up being a warm and muggy summer night. We’ll watch the thunderstorms to our north and you can too by downloading our app. Otherwise, have a great night and try to stay as cool as you can this week.