(KCTV) — Tuesday’s high temperatures sizzled into the 90s with a heat index close to 100 degrees. If you don’t like heat, you can either skip to the end of the blog or stop reading right now because warmer than average temperatures are on the way through the middle of next week.
Yeah, it’ll be cooler Wednesday, but we jump right back into the mid and upper 80s again on Thursday and Friday.
It may cool off again over the weekend in the Kansas City area, but it looks to remain hot over southwest Missouri, northern Arkansas and northeastern Oklahoma. Check out the map below. Summer-like heat is poised to continue into next week.
This could be a remarkable stretch of heat considering next week’s average high is in the low 80s around KC and low 90s across Oklahoma and Arkansas. We will easily see highs in the mid to even upper 80s across Missouri and Kansas Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and could see mid to upper 90s in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. I’ve drawn in the projected jet stream position through the middle of next week
Remember, often times what’s happening in the upper atmosphere is reflected on the surface. The jet stream forms in areas of discontinuity between temperatures or air pressure. At this moment, there is a growing discrepancy in the temperatures across North America.
Tuesday afternoon, temperatures ranged from the 40s to low 60s across most of Canada, while the southern third of the United States warmed into the upper 80s and low 90s. That’s why I placed the arrows over the northern tier of the U.S. and the temperature disparity looks to remain and perhaps get stronger into the middle of next week, especially with some computer guidance suggesting a ridge of high pressure aloft building over the southwestern part of the country.
It could become very hot under the eastern edge of that ridge with high temperatures in eastern Oklahoma and parts of Texas reaching the upper 90s and even 100 degrees.
A couple of things to remember before we move forward in this blog. 1) When it’s warm, it’s a lot warmer than average. 2) Don’t forget about the cooler air in Canada
Okay, now we can go on. The Climate Prediction Center’s 8 to 14 outlooks predicts a large part of the country will experience warmer than average temperatures through September 16th. Here’s the most recent outlook from the CPC.
The above map really grabs onto the large dome of hot air over the southern plains next week. The darker the shade of orange, the more certain the chance for above average temperatures. It also suggests there could be a stretch where temperatures are well above average. So even with a couple of cooler days thrown into the mix, the overall temperatures end up above average through the middle of the month.
Okay, let’s talk about rainfall. September averages about four and a half inches of rainfall. That’s due in part to the arrival of more cold fronts in September, which is often thought of as a month where we transition from summer to fall. But typically in September, if it gets hot, it gets dry. Dry weather is often associated with large areas of high pressure aloft or at the surface so it stands to reason that rainfall through the middle of the month will also be near or below average in Kansas City with a better chance of drier than average weather setting up across the deep south.
You might notice where the above average area of rainfall is located. Scroll back up in the blog and find the graphic labeled “Upper Level Winds.” Do you see where the jet stream is located? That’s right, over the area of active, rainy weather.
Remember, how I said don’t forget about the cooler air in Canada? Look at the graphic above once again. There is a small chance KC could have above average rainfall by the middle of the month.
I think you might be able to see where I’m going with this. There are signs that by the middle of the month, a piece of that cool in Canada will try and push a cold front through the central plains and all the way to Gulf coast. A cold front with rain, thunderstorms and the coolest air mass in months. Check out the forecast map projection below for Friday, September 13th.
Yep, the guidance is pointing toward a potential morning with lows in the 40s. Wow! Won’t that be a refreshing change!? I told you if you didn’t like the heat you could stop reading or skip to the end of the blog. Now you know why. Let’s just hope it plays out this way. We’ve got climatology on our side, so I think there is a decent chance.