FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- This will be a quick blog that relies heavy on graphics to get the message across. Hopefully I can add some context to give some meaning to the graphics. Don’t be afraid to share this outlook as it’s always good to give our friends a heads up when a potential severe weather set up is taking place.
As you can see on the graphic below, the highest risk of severe weather is shaded red and includes places such as Butler, Clinton, Warrensburg, Sedalia, Warsaw and Osceola Missouri.
The red area indicates a “Moderate” Risk of severe weather. The orange is “Enhanced”, yellow is the “slight” risk category and green is the “marginal” risk area.
Now, I’ll add in the forecasted radar image from 8 p.m. Wednesday night so you see the areas where the strongest thunderstorms could be found.
As a reminder, here is chart that explains what each severe weather outlook category means.
“Moderate” and “Enhanced” Risk outlooks are issued when the ingredients are coming together for potential widespread thunderstorms. The moderate area is where strong tornadoes and large destructive hail are possible.
Thunderstorms in the “Enhanced” and “Moderate” areas are capable of travelling as intense thunderstorms over many miles. But why is there a “Moderate” risk of severe weather this evening? As I mentioned before, there are some ingredients coming together that increase the probability of seeing severe weather. One is CAPE. That stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It’s derived from a mathematical computation that takes into account weather conditions such as heat & humidity. Just remember the higher the CAPE, the higher the chance for thunderstorms. CAPE values can run from 100 to 9500. I’ve colored coded the range below. With green being the lowest cape and dark red being the highest.
Thunderstorms forming in high areas of CAPE can become supercells. Supercells, if they can start rotating, can produce very large hail and tornadoes. Check out the graphic below which shows rotation potential of supercells this evening mainly in the “Enhanced” and “Moderate” risk areas. Again, I’ve taken the number index and assigned a color code so hopefully it’s easier to understand.
Bottomline, there is potential for some long-tracked supercells this evening. They might not be in the exact locations shown above, but somewhere in the “Enhanced” and “Moderate” Risk areas there will be higher potential for supercells. (Note: You can get supercells in slight and moderate risk areas too, but the chance is lower. Don’t let your guard down, just because you are in a slight risk)
What’s your next step? 1) Download the StormTrack5 Weather App. 2) Have a way to get watches and warnings. 3) Have a plan of where to go if you are alerted to approaching severe weather. 4) Stay calm. 5) We will all be fine if we follow steps 1, 2, 3 & 4. I’ll be updating the forecast from the Mobile Weather Center. Gary Amble and Erin Little will be tracking the thunderstorms from the StormTrack5 Weather Center. Stay safe everyone!