FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- We are headed into a couple of days of heavy thunderstorms, potential flash flooding, gusty winds and more hail.
The Storm Prediction Center is already giving everyone, potentially in the path of severe weather, a heads up. How? By issuing these Severe Weather Risk Outlooks for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tuesday’s outlook includes an “enhanced” risk of severe weather, which means numerous severe weather reports are expected within the orangish-brown shaded areas. These thunderstorms could last longer and could be widespread.
In enhanced areas there is usually concern for a few tornadoes, several reports of wind damage and large hail. Hail sizes in enhanced areas could be as big as tennis balls. We will likely have a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and could have a Tornado Watch in Kansas City and surrounding areas in Kansas and Missouri Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Wednesday is another day when severe thunderstorms will be possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in the yellow shaded area.
The severe weather might not be as widespread as it would be in an enhanced area, but the thunderstorms could be just as intense. That means tornadoes are possible, as well as damaging wind gusts and large hail. Again, slight means less widespread, not less intense.
Judging by the “forecast track” map below you can see there will be several rounds of rain and thunderstorms beginning Monday night.
The first round of strong or severe thunderstorms could arrive Tuesday morning as a warm front moves toward Kansas City. The second batch of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night may be the strongest.
Check out the location of the low pressure area (the “L”) Tuesday evening at 7 p.m. The low pressure is linked to the warm front (red) and the cold front (blue) and where these three features come together, thunderstorms may have a tendency to start turning.
Rotating storms can produce large hail but can also produce tornado warnings. The graphic below shows a slightly elevated chance of this happening near Kansas City Tuesday evening. The threat is bigger near Butler, Missouri, where yellow shaded areas correspond with moderate chances that thunderstorms could produce tennis ball sized hail and possibly a tornado.
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible late Tuesday night and off and on through Wednesday night. Many of these thunderstorms will train over the same area. This training can lead to flash flooding and heavy rain.
What’s causing the thunderstorms to repeatedly rain over the same area? Several rain makers will ride along a stalled boundary draped across parts of Kansas and Missouri. This boundary won’t move south of the area until Thursday. Several National Weather Service offices have issued Flash Flood Watches to account for the project heavy rainfall.
Rainfall rates could reach an inch an hour, maybe more. It is safe to say two to three inches of rain is possible by Thursday afternoon. But a few of us may get four inches of rain, maybe more by Thursday. The Weather Prediction Center in Silver Spring Maryland is forecasting as much as four inches of rain near Kansas City over the next 7 days.
Believe it not we are behind in rainfall for the month of April. We will easily make this up this week. Let’s just hope the damaging severe weather misses us. It’s not likely but if it does remember we are just getting into the stormiest part of the year.
Severe weather chances peak in May and start to wane in June as Summer heats builds into the region.