FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) — This week will bring our first chance for snow this season! Sometimes we have to wait until late December or January before this happens so when the forecast reads snow and it’s only October that’s a big story.

Let me make this very clear. This will likely not be a whopper of a snow event. Most areas will see less than 2 inches of snow, with some areas southeast of the Metro perhaps not seeing anything at all except rain. That said, let’s take a look at this system as it stands right now.

Our first opportunity to see a snowflake or two will come in Monday night as cold air and precipitation collide in our area. This air is actually going to be colder than the air Tuesday night into Wednesday, so I think we may see a flake or two but very little of it will stick to the ground, with the exception of a few grassy areas.

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Tuesday will follow as a mostly dry day followed by a chance for another mixed precipitation event Tuesday night. Watch the roads Wednesday morning for icy spots before the air warms to the point of melting anything that falls overnight.

Warm air advection is a fancy term that simply means the wind will pull in air that’s warmer than the air presently in place which is exactly what happens late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday as you can see will bring more rain and drizzle than snow.

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By Wednesday night, the back side of the system will move in along with the cold air from the north which will freeze the air from the surface to all areas aloft. That cold air will also be rather moist so flakes will form sending our best chance for snow our way Wednesday night and parts of the day on Thursday.

The system will be exiting rather quickly, so our snow chance will be rather brief, lasting only 4 to 6 hours with much of that time spent with only light snow falling. The way things look right now I see maybe an inch or so falling through this time frame which is the bulk of what we will see this week.

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Here's a look at the total for snow expected from tonight through Thursday.

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Don’t get overly excited about the 2.1” forecast for Kansas City. I think at least half of that will melt away as we transition from a mixed bag of rain and snow early this week through the all snow event late Wednesday night into Thursday. I’ll still stick with a 1” to 2” forecast but my gut feeling is we will see less than that.

When it’s October, just seeing a few snowflakes is eye opening, and if some of that actually sticks to the ground it’ll make for some great pictures. If that happens at your house, you’d better snap those pics quick because sunshine and warmer air this weekend will take away any snow that falls before the weekend is through.

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