FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) – Get use to these cool days and chilly nights and maybe a couple of bone chilling nights as we get closer to Halloween. As many as five storm systems will cross the Midwest over the next two weeks keeping our temperatures mostly below average for this time of year.
We’re experiencing one of these systems today. A strong low-pressure system is helping to produce blustery and cloudy conditions as the winds wrap counter-clockwise around the center of the storm. Low pressure is associated with rising air, so we have an extensive deck of stratus clouds across the region. The clouds will erode after sunset as the low moves into the Great Lakes and the atmosphere becomes more stable.
A similar storm system arrives Wednesday night and Thursday. This storm will bring a chance of rain to the Midwest and another shot of crisp, autumn air to much of the central U.S. A strong surface low pressure area will likely develop as a result of a swiftly moving jet streams winds that will carve out a potent area of low pressure at higher altitudes.
This storm appears to bring the best chance of rain to southern Kansas, southern Missouri, northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible in this area, but the risk of severe weather looks low at this time. After the rain passes Thursday evening, many of us could dip back below freezing again Friday morning.
Look at the above graphic again. Do you see the two storms on the left side of the graphic? Also notice the large, high pressure area over the west coast. This high will anchor itself in that location for most of the next two weeks directing several storms and associated cold fronts into the middle of the country.
For instance, Sunday night as the Chiefs are playing the Packers a cold front arrives and could drop temperatures into the 40s by the end of the game. Colder air continues to drain into the central U.S. on Monday as another potent piece of energy moves into the region from Canada Monday night. The result? We could see our first snowflakes of the year on Tuesday, October 29th.
The active pattern continues as another storm is forecast to arrive in early November. By then, the high over the desert southwest appears to weaken. This allows the early November storm to form west of the Rockies. This means this storm, potentially, could draw warmer air into the southern plains and Mississippi river valley setting up a possible severe weather day over the deep south to kick off a new month.
All in all, the active pattern is pointing toward colder than average temperatures for Kansas City and much of the Midwest over the next two weeks. The Climate Prediction Center is also leaning in that direction as evidenced by its 8 to 14-day outlook issued Monday afternoon.
Since most of the storm systems that will move through between now and early November are coming at us from the Canada or the Pacific Northwest, there won’t be a lot of moisture for these storms. That appears to indicate a drier than average trend setting up between now and early November.
Here is the CPC’s 8 to 14-day rainfall outlook that depicts a potentially drier than average set up for much of the country.
The exceptions are areas where higher humidity could result in better chances for widespread or heavier rainfall. Kansas City is in an area where below average rainfall is favored. Below average temperatures, below average rainfall. If you are wondering, it’s shaping up to be a dry a cold Halloween here in Kansas City.
Like we said, get use to these cool days and chilly nights. We’ve got a number of them on the way over the next two weeks and Halloween could be bone chilling, especially for trick-or-treaters.