FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- Mother Nature has been relentless it seems since October. That’s when this wild weather pattern set up and it just won’t quit.
Well guess what? Here we go again. Our next chance for rain, thunderstorms, flash flooding and cooler than average temperatures returns on Monday.
The next big storm is a massive storm that covers a large porting of the western United States. Take a look at the storm on the water vapor snapshot above.
This storm moves into the central plains on Monday and creates a lot of instability across the southern plains. The Storm Prediction Center, since last week, has been advising a large portion of the southern plains to be on guard for this storm system as it arrives on Monday. This severe weather outlook was posted Sunday afternoon.
The area getting a lot of attention is the contour shaded red. That means it has a “moderate risk” of severe weather. The SPC issues a moderate risk when the agency believes widespread severe thunderstorms are likely.
These storms could be long-lived and intense. Any thunderstorm that develops across the moderate risk area will be capable of producing a strong tornado, or widespread wind damage and “hen egg” or larger sized hail.
This will be a very dangerous area on Monday because any thunderstorm that develops could move as fast 60 miles an hour. Conditions could change dramatically and in a hurry.
The storms that develop across Oklahoma and southern Kansas will move toward Kansas City but will weaken with time. We have a slight risk of severe weather in the KC metro for Monday night and Tuesday morning, but heavy rain causing “flash flooding” will be Kansas City and the surrounding area’s bigger worry. Just a take a look at this simulation of what radar could look like around 1 a.m. Tuesday.
Heavy rain looks possible Monday night, lasting to around daybreak on Tuesday. We might see 1 to as many as 3 inches of rain in that time period. Flood prone areas and low-lying areas will most susceptible to flash flooding.
Judging the depth of water is hard during the day; it’s even harder at night. Simple rule: Don’t drive through high water.
We get a small break from the rain Tuesday morning but by lunch time another round of rain and thunderstorms will move in from the west and south. This cluster of thunderstorms will likely form into a line. Powered by some wickedly strong winds aloft, this line of thunderstorms could produce straight-line wind damage and it could spin up a couple of brief tornadoes.
Because of this possibility, a large chunk of our area is under a slight risk of severe weather on Tuesday. Below you’ll see another simulated radar image from Tuesday afternoon. You might notice the sharp edges and bulges along the line of rainfall. This is an indication of the possible damaging wind threat. We will be watching it carefully.
So, be ready this week. To recap:
- Dry Monday morning but rain and thunder arrive Monday night. It could be heavy and will likely last off and on all night into Tuesday morning.
- Then, late Tuesday morning, a line of thunderstorms develops. Heavy rain will again be a concern, but we will also have to watch for the possibility of severe winds and even a tornado.
We will get a break in the middle of next week but, right now, Memorial Day weekend looks unsettled. The holiday weekend won’t be a washout but there will be rain and thunderstorm chances to go along with heat and humidity.
At this point the severe weather threat looks lower than this week. Maybe that’s a sign that Mother Nature won’t be as relentless as we head into June.