FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- There was a lot of talk earlier this week about another round of winter weather headed for the Kansas City metro. I even wrote a blog that said, “winter is coming, again.” I was trying to tie the weather into the Game of Thrones season premiere Sunday night.
Well, you can throw that all out with the garbage because it’s not going to snow in Kansas City tonight. It might not even rain! So, what is going on? Well, it’s pretty simple to explain. Check out the Saturday afternoon radar/satellite composite snapshot above.
The center of the upper low, driving this storm, is over the piney woods of eastern Texas. That’s about 100 miles farther south than most of the computer data predicted earlier this week. Because the storm tracks farther south, the best chance for precipitation stays well south of KC. The metro might get a few showers overnight, but there will be a distinct cut off between who gets rain and who doesn’t. If you are lucky enough to get a little rain, it won’t be more than a tenth of an inch. Check out our forecast track for Sunday morning and pay attention to where the rain, and even snow, is located.
Yep, the best chance for rain or snow is now near Interstate 44. However, this is good news if you were hoping for nice weather on Sunday. The farther south track of the storm means we get back to sunshine earlier in the day and that means warmer temperatures than originally forecasted. On Thursday, I forecasted a high of 46 for Sunday for Kansas City. In other words, a big swing and a miss. But hey, I’d rather miss and the weather be better, then miss and the weather be worse.
The weather gets even better at the start of the new week. Temperatures soar into the 70s on Monday and near 80 on Tuesday. Spring humidity will return and with abundant sunshine a lot of potential energy will build over the Midwest. What does this mean? It means a severe weather setup may loom near Kansas City on Wednesday.
Look at the map above. The green area is available moisture or humidity. There should be plenty to work with by midweek. See the red arrows? Those are the upper levels winds or the jet stream. Notice how the arrows get farther apart between Dallas and Chicago. This is an area where the air is spreading out at a high altitude. We call this divergence because the winds aloft are diverging. This is an area where the air will lift with ease.
Now look at the blue blob running from Houston into central Arkansas. The blue area represents where some strong, low level winds could potentially blow. These winds will enhance the rising air and add some twisting to that air. Now add in a cold front and an area of low pressure and you have yourself a severe weather setup.
This is pretty early in the game but wind damage, large hail and even a few tornadoes will be possible across the southern and central plains Wednesday and Wednesday night. We have a product that predicts large hail and it suggests an elevated chance for hail the size of quarters or bigger in and near Kansas City early Thursday morning.
There is little doubt there will be a lot of talk about this spring severe weather setup as the new week gets underway. You can bet we will be watching the emerging threat and let you know when and where the worst could hit.
This is probably a good time to download our free weather app. Click here to do so. Thanks for reading the KCTV5 Weather blog. Enjoy Sunday, it’s going to end up being a great day!