FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- Kansas City, get ready. It looks like our first snowfall of the season arrives Monday. It’s not going to be a whopper of a storm but this will be a record-breaking snow.
This will be the first time in KC recorded weather history that it snows in October, three consecutive years. You’ll recall it snowed October 14th, 2018, and last year measurable snow fell on October 28th. It just has to snow a tenth of an inch to count and right now it looks like we will get more than that.
The National Weather Service issued a Winter Weather Advisory that goes into effect Monday morning at 4 AM. The advisory runs through Tuesday morning at 1 AM.
Because of the potential for snow and hazardous travel, Monday will also be a Storm Track 5 Red Weather Alert Day.
The Winter Weather Advisory impacts all of the counties in the Storm Track 5 viewing area. Winter weather advisories are issued when a combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain are expected to cause hazardous travel.
At this point, it appears we could see a mix of freezing drizzle, snow and sleet as early as 6 AM Monday. Initially, pavement temperatures will be above freezing but the air temperature will be in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
This means bridges and overpasses could cool faster and become slick and icy. So please be careful if you have to drive Monday morning.
This first wave of rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow will pass through the area by 10 AM. After a short lull, a second, stronger wave will roll into the area. This wave appears to track near I-70.
This band of heavier precipitation should cool the atmosphere above Kansas City enough that most, if not all, of the precipitation that falls should fall as snow or sleet. Forecast Track depicts this area covering the entire metro by 2PM.
There are still some pockets of sleet showing up and it’s possible the coldest air doesn’t reach mid Missouri meaning central Missouri and southern Missouri just see rain and very little if any snow.
This is a complicated forecast when it comes to predicting snowfall. For instance, if this was just a rain event then we would expect four-tenths of an inch of rain to fall.
An average 10 to 1 snow ratio would translate into four inches of snow, right? Not so fast. Snow might have a 10 to 1 ratio but we expect to see sleet and freezing drizzle. And that will cut down on the snow totals. Plus, some of the snow will melt when it hits the ground.
Judging by the intensity and location of the bands of snow we see, here are the snowfall totals I think we will see across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Once the snow tapers to flurries Monday night, the temperature is forecast to drop into the lower 20s by Tuesday morning. That means any wet roads could flash freeze overnight and make any untreated streets and sidewalks hazardous.
Plus, there is a chance that another wave of very light freezing rain or sleet moves across the area for the Tuesday morning commute.
Temperatures should warm back above freezing Tuesday afternoon, melting most of our first snowfall or the season. So, get ready Kansas City; winter comes early this week.