FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- We knew it was coming! This is the time of the year when we start talking about the first frost or freeze of the season. So, it’s not shocking that computer guidance is pointing toward a first or freeze this weekend.
There is some chilly air lurking over the Yukon territory and province of British Columbia in western Canada. Afternoon temperatures are in the mid-20s in the Yukon territory Monday afternoon. Look at the radar/satellite composite picture below.
The red arrow points to the storm that will bring us our first taste of frosty air. It’s really a large trough of low pressure and it has some very cold air around the center of the circulation. The storm will bring the cold air into the U.S. as this week unfolds.
The upper level winds will move into the Rocky Mountains by mid-week and will push a strong cold front into our area Thursday evening. Rain and thunderstorms are likely Thursday and Thursday night. The cold air will plunge in behind the front beginning Friday morning.
Did you see the snow on the above map? Colorado, western Nebraska and the Dakotas will see measurable snow Wednesday into Thursday. At this time, it appears Kansas City WILL NOT GET snow, just much colder air. But we get another healthy dose of rain before the colder air moves into the area.
The upper level storm intensifies as it approaches Kansas City Friday morning. This means a cold rain will be possible on Friday with highs in the 40s. It might be the first “Pot O Chili” day. Snow will be possible in central Kansas from Dodge City & Great Bend to Hays. The coldest part of these types of storms can be found at the center of the circulation. These storms are called “Cold Core Lows”.
This time around a cold core low means the best chance of below freezing temperatures and snow will be found closer to the center of the low-pressure area over Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. But the low is large enough that some of the cold air will spread out away from the center and will be as far south as east-central Kansas and west-central Missouri. Take a look at possible low temperatures for Saturday morning around 7.
Kansas City’s average first freeze is in late October. For northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas, it’s around the middle of October. So, if we get a freeze this weekend in KC, it would be a little ahead of schedule but right on time for other parts of the viewing area. In other words, we knew it was coming, sooner or later.