FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) - Grab a couple of logs for the fireplace and settle in for a rainy and cool evening.
Rain is likely to continue this evening and will get heavier at times later tonight. There’s also a chance to hear some thunder and see a few flashes of lightning. Let’s get into the what’s causing our stormy night. Look no farther than the radar & satellite composite map I’ve posted below. I’ve drawn in an L where a strong storm system is getting even stronger tonight.
The location of the storm is important in our weather set up this evening. Follow the red arrows. They are flowing right over Kansas City. This is considered southwesterly flow. These are winds between 10 and 20,00 feet off the surface that will be transporting in some warmer and more humid air.
Remember the winds aloft are a lot stronger than the winds at the surface. This difference in these wind speeds can create turning or twisting in the atmosphere. That will lead to thunderstorms tonight and could lead to severe weather, especially over Oklahoma and perhaps Arkansas and eastern Texas. There is another ingredient to consider tonight and that’s a strong cold front that is barreling into the Midwest. Here’s a look at the afternoon surface map.
Tonight’s forecast: Periods of Rain
Wind: South-southeast 5 to 10 mph.
The storm will move to the east of Kansas City overnight and drag the strong cold front along with it. We don’t anticipate severe weather in the Kansas City area but about 50 miles south of the metro, closer to places such as; Garnett, Butler, Warrensburg, Clinton and Sedalia there is a chance one or two of the thunderstorms could produce severe wind gusts in excess of 60 miles per hour. There is a better chance of severe weather farther south, closer to the Oklahoma/Kansas Stateline.
The graphic above is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for tonight. Green means marginal. In green areas there can one or two severe thunderstorms or perhaps thunderstorms that are strong but aren’t quite strong enough to be considered severe. This radar simulation below gives you an idea of why the SPC has highlighted this area in green. I’ve put a purple circle around the line of thunderstorms that could turn severe.
Just a heads up. These are late night thunderstorms so don’t let your guard down as you head to bed. Have a way to get a severe thunderstorm warning if one is issued. Once these thunderstorms pass through the area, blustery northwest winds will take over for Wednesday dropping our temperatures into the 40s. But those winds will have an edge as they cut through clothing and add an extra chill to the air. That means you might need a couple of more logs for the fire Wednesday night. Happy Thanksgiving!