FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- Remember, the “Facts of Life” TV show theme song? “You take the good, you take the bad and there you have, the facts of life”? We’re going to be living those lyrics this weekend. The cooler air you have all been rooting for is coming, that’s the good. But it comes with an almost certain chance of rain at times this weekend, that’s the bad.
There are so many outdoor events in Kansas City this weekend and rain could dampen some of the celebrations. Where is this rain coming from? Hopefully this blog will help explain what’s heading our way. Let’s look at the radar/satellite composite image.
A couple of things to point out and these features may be obvious. See the “L” right under the time in the upper left-hand corner? That storm brings a cold front that arrives on Sunday. Now look at the map again. See the blob of rain, yes, I said blob of rain, near Houston, Texas? This is tropical storm Imelda and it will move northeast in the direction the red arrows are pointing. The bigger storm on the west coast will absorb the remnant moisture associated with Imelda and that will help increase our rain chances starting Friday evening.
But before we get to the weekend, we’ve got to put up with one more day of hot and humid weather. The large ridge of high pressure anchored over the southern U.S. will still be there Wednesday morning. It will start to slowly shift into the southeast by Wednesday night. What does that mean for Kansas City?
Another day with highs near 90 and a heat index around 95. Underneath this upper level high pressure system, there will be a lot of rain falling at the surface over eastern Texas. As the high shifts to the east, the area of rain associated with Imelda, currently near Houston, will weaken, becoming a surface low pressure area late Wednesday.
On the map below, I’ve marked the remnants of Imelda with an “X”. Since the air flows clockwise around areas of high pressure, “Imelda” will follow the flow around the departing high pressure area and will drift toward the Ozarks.
By Friday evening, “Imelda” will approach St. Louis. The associated remnant moisture will spread into Kansas City. The spinning area of air should enhance our rain chances by Friday afternoon, just in time for the Plaza Art Fair’s opening evening.
This area of rain will pass by Friday evening, leaving us with some dry skies Friday night. But we aren’t done with the weekend rain chances. That’s because we have to remember the storm in the Pacific northwest that we talked about earlier in the blog.
The upper low in the Pacific northwest today will move into the central plains and drag a cold front into our region during the day Saturday. This will bring additional rain chances Saturday, off and on into the day Sunday. If the front clears the area faster on Sunday, then the rain chances will come to an end earlier in the day on Sunday. But right now, there’s a stronger signal that the front will move slowly through the area on Sunday keeping the rain chance at least 50% through Sunday night.
Computer guidance suggests heavy rain will be possible at times through the weekend. I have to agree, especially if the remnants of Imelda interact with the slow-moving front this weekend. Even though the rain isn’t expected to be constant, it will be heavy enough at times to produce One to four inches of rain across the region.
All this rain should help to hold the temperatures in the 70s for daytime highs over the weekend. The rain cooled air will also mean a chance for some seasonably cool overnight lows in the low 60s. We’ll take the good. One to four inches of rain over a busy outdoor weekend in Kansas City. We’ll take the bad. And there you have the Facts of Life.