FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- Severe weather and tornado threats usually ramp up and peak in May, and so far, this month is living up to the hype! For the second consecutive week, there is a heightened risk of damaging thunderstorm winds, large hail, tornadoes and flash flooding. It all kicks off Monday night and Kansas City can blame most of the threat on a stalled frontal boundary that is draped across northern Missouri and Kansas.
The boundary will move slowly north and south over the next couple of days. Thunderstorms will form near the boundary where abundant energy in the atmosphere will help fuel thunderstorm development. For instance, take a look at the map below. Notice how the best available energy for strong thunderstorms is near or south of the stationary boundary drawn on the radar/satellite map above.
This highest available energy closely mirrors where the Storm Prediction Center is focusing a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for later Monday night, overnight into Tuesday morning.
Initially there will be a threat of brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts tonight but once we reach midnight, the threat will transition over to large hail and heavy rain. Overnight rain and its associated cool air will help force the stationary to move a little farther south on Tuesday. But not far enough. The boundary lines up near or just south of I-70.
Severe weather will be depending whether we get a break in the rain Tuesday. That will have a big impact on how warm and humid it becomes Tuesday afternoon. The slight risk means we could have scattered severe thunderstorms that could include everything from large hail and high winds to a couple of tornadoes.
If we dodge severe weather Tuesday, the threat appears to ramp back up Wednesday. That’s when we could warm back up into the 70s. Add in some humid air and a change in wind direction with altitude, you’ve got a severe weather set up that could bring numerous severe thunderstorms to the southern plains, including much of eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas.
Wednesday’s thunderstorms would likely reach peak intensity between mid-afternoon Wednesday and early Thursday morning. Severe weather is just one part of the active weather story. We must also be concerned about flash flooding.
Flash flooding kills more people annually on average than tornadoes and so far this year, 26 people have died in flash flood related accidents. Remember to turn around, don’t drown. Don’t’ drive through high water. Here’s how much rain we could see between Monday night and Thursday morning.
Remember to download our free KCTV5 weather app and check back here often at kctv5.com for more blog updates. Have a safe week!