FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- Didn’t get enough rain Wednesday morning and you need more? Here’s the good news, we have several rain chances headed our way over the next seven days. The next one is already setting up for tonight.
Take a look at the 2 p.m. surface map and look at the stationary boundary draped across Kansas. The boundary stretches into southwest Missouri. North of the front, the air is slightly cooler but still very humid.
South of the front, the air is very hot and equally as humid. I’ve drawn a yellow circle to indicate the most likely area where more thunderstorms will form later tonight.
And some of these thunderstorms could be strong or even severe. We expect the clouds to break up over Kansas and parts of Missouri late Wednesday afternoon. This will destabilize the atmosphere and add gusto to the thunderstorms.
There is a threat a few of these thunderstorms could have gusty, damaging winds or large hail. If strong thunderstorms form, it will most likely happen in the slight risk area which is shaded in yellow.
The slight risk includes the southwestern half of the Kansas City metro. Towns such as Overland Park, Paola, Harrisonville and Garnett are included in the slight risk.
A marginal risk of severe weather surrounds the slight risk and includes Atchison, Richmond, Warrensburg, Sedalia, Wichita and Tulsa, Oklahoma. This severe weather outlook runs all the way into Thursday morning at 7 a.m. The reason is because the next round of thunderstorms may not form until 11 o’clock tonight or maybe after midnight.
Check out the latest Forecast Track. The simulated radar image is generated from a high resolution, short term computer model. It shows what the radar may look like Thursday morning at 3 a.m.
These thunderstorms are concentrated over an area that has seen several rounds of heavy rain over the last several days. Because the soil is saturated, and this area is more susceptible to flooding, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect until Thursday afternoon for Jefferson, Douglas, Franklin and Anderson, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn and Miami, Bates and Cass Counties.
That’s where an additional two inches of rain could fall tonight, continuing into Thursday morning. Once again, there will likely be a sharp dividing line between a lot of rain and a little bit of rain. I don’t know where that line will be exactly, but judging by the rainfall outlook below, it appears to be very close or slightly northeast of Kansas City.
Thursday’s showers and thunderstorms should force the frontal boundary far enough south that by Friday we should see drier skies over much of the area. The dry weather should last until late Saturday night when another thunderstorm complex could form and roll over the area Sunday morning. And it could happen again Sunday night. And again, Monday night.
Good news, right? It is, if you needed the rain.