FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- We are barely into August, so I thought it would be a good time to look ahead to the final month of the summer.
Meteorologically speaking. June, July and August are often thought of as the meteorological summer months because the weather patterns during these months most resemble summer-type weather, i.e. heat waves, drought, nighttime thunderstorms and fewer bouts of severe weather.
So, what does this final month of summer hold for Kansas City? I can tell you it looks like we're done with 100-degree heat and done with heatwaves. If all goes right, could be done with 90-degree days.
That's a bit of stretch but the overall the weather pattern from now until the kids go back to school favors cooler than average temperatures. Don't get me wrong, there is heat and a lot of it in parts of the country, but it's confined to the southwest.
The overall upper level flow is northwesterly. This wind flow aloft allows cold fronts, even if they're weak, to make into the central plains. And, in the next 7 to 10 days, the northwest flow aloft strengthens suggesting an unsettled weather pattern with numerous fronts and numerous rain chances.
The average high through the middle of the month is a healthy 88 degrees, but by the end of the month with the sun angle lowering, the average high is 85.
Climate influencers such as El Nino are having little to impact on global weather patterns and are not expected to play a role through the end of August. So, we are likely in for a messy month of weather with lots of transitions between hot and cool, rainy and dry.
We will have to rely on global deterministic models when trying to figure out what will happen over the next few weeks. The EURO and The American model both feature an unsettled weather pattern headed into the middle of August with lots of rain chances which would lead to cooler than average temperatures.
The Climate Prediction Center offers up this assessment for the United States temperature outlook for the month of August.
That outlook seems very possible given the northwest flow aloft and the number of cold fronts we could see through the middle and perhaps end of the month. Since cold fronts could bring more rain showers, it makes sense that a good portion of the country will have above average rainfall for August.
This blog should make you happy if you're not a fan of heat waves and you like your lawns green and your garden growing. It's too early to tell if this pattern will carry over into September. As we always say we'll have to wait and see. Stay tuned.