If it seems like we’ve had a dry July, you’re thinking is spot on.
We will likely finish this month with below average rainfall.
So far, fewer than two and half inches of rain have fallen at Kansas City International. That’s almost two inches below what we typically experience in July. That means our string of seven straight months with above average rain will come to an end. But it won’t last long.
As of right now, it appears August is going to get off to a very wet start. We are in a weather pattern that could produce several rounds of overnight and early morning showers and thunderstorms.
The severe weather threat is low but this week’s upcoming storms offer a high chance for flash flooding. Kansas City is in a squeeze play of sort over the next seven days.
Below is the weather pattern set up that puts in the sweet spot for several rounds of rain between Wednesday and Sunday.
Kansas City is squeezed between a cool air mass over the eastern United States and a dome of hot air building over the southwestern part of the county.
This points the main storm track right through the heart of the metro. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop late Wednesday afternoon over the Rocky mountains and northern plains.
These thunderstorms will congeal into a large thunderstorm complex during the overnight hours, Wednesday into Thursday morning. Upper level winds at about 25-thousand feet will push this large thunderstorms complex across the northern plains and turn it south into the central plains, including the Kansas City area.
This process will be repeat Thursday night into Friday morning and Friday night into Saturday morning and maybe Saturday night into Sunday morning.
During some summers, these large thunderstorm complexes can account for up to 75-percent of the rain that falls over the central and southern plains. Without these thunderstorms serious drought conditions could develop. Sometimes these thunderstorms will announce their arrival with a strong burst of wind, tremendous downpours and frequent lightning.
That will certainly be possible with each of these long-lasting storm systems that can sometimes cover the size of an entire state. But it appears this week, the thunderstorm complexes will bring a slow, steady, long-lasting, soaking rain.
In some cases it may be too much. The Weather Prediction Center in Silver Spring Maryland watches for areas of excessive rainfall. Here’s it’s take on how much rain we could see between now and Sunday.
Yep, that’s two to four inches of rain across most of western Missouri. But it won’t fall all at once. This graphic’s rainfall totals suggest that several rounds of thunderstorms will track over the same area adding up the rain totals and wiping out our recent rainfall deficit.
It’s been a dry July but judging by the weather pattern headed our way, we won’t have a repeat in August.