FAIRWAY, KS (KCTV) -- Here we go again. Only, this time, it’s not a blizzard; it’s another winter-like storm impacting the region.
This time the hardest hit area will be over Nebraska! That’s where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 6 p.m. Sunday. The pink shaded area outlines the Winter Storm warned region.
As the map above points out, there is a chance to see up to a foot of snow in the Winter Storm Warning.
Outside of the warning, there is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect. That includes Atchison, Holt, and Nodaway counties in Missouri and Brown, Nemaha and, Marshall counties until 6 a.m. Sunday.
But, a wider area shaded in purple farther west in Kansas and farther north in Iowa are under the advisory until 6 p.m. Sunday. The counties shaded in purple are in the advisory area because up to two inches of snow is possible there tonight.
What’s going on this time around? Well here it is! Check out the water vapor satellite image below. I’ll continue the discussion below the picture.
It’s similar to last weekend, but this time the strong low pressure area is spinning just west of Kansas City instead of south of KC. It is forecast to move right over St. Joseph, Missouri tonight and Sunday.
The counter-clockwise flow of air around the low is stirring up areas of rain to the right or warmer side of the low, while north and west of the low, colder air is being drawn into this system.
The colder air is mixing with the moisture and creating snow. In some instances, lots of it. Take a look at the projected snowfall totals from our in-house model, the RPM.
The RPM, or Rapid Precision Mesoscale Model, is a cooperative effort between government agencies and academic interests. The model runs every three hours and goes out to about 51 hours. That means we can get frequent updates and that helps in critical situations such as Winter Storms.
Notice the RPM has pinpointed Maryville, Missouri to get four inches of snow. While it’s possible to get four inches of snow in Maryville, other computer data is trending lower. So, let’s compare four of our most used models to try and determine a best guess for a snowfall prediction in Maryville.
We will compare the European Weather Model, or the Euro, the North American Model, referred to in the graphic as the NAM, and the Global Forecast System model also known as the GFS.
Averaging all the models together you come up with just over 2 inches of snow.
If you throw out the highest trending model and the lowest trending model, you get about 1.8 inches of snow.
Both scenarios easily fit into the Winter Weather Advisory criteria. Winter Weather Advisories for snow are issued when 1 to 5 inches of snow is expected.
So yes, here we go again. Another winter-like storm is crossing the Central United States. But, this time it has its sights northwest of Kansas City.
So, for now, we can all breathe of sigh of relief. Less than an inch of snow, I think we would all agree, is a lot easier on a city than a blizzard.