KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Aug. 22, 2007

9 a.m. - Thoughts On Thompson, Obama

Sen. Barack Obama does indeed have political star quality. Former Sen. Fred Thompson is going to have a major impact in the race for the Republican nomination for president.

That's my assessment after having watched them and Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain speak at the Veterans of Foreign Wars Convention in Kansas City.

You wouldn't think that the VFW forum would be a good one for Obama. His appearance at the convention had been characterized as "going into the lion’s den" at the start of the week. He more than held his own.

Obama has charisma. His performance here showed that he also has the deft political touch you have to have if you are going to win friends across the political spectrum.

I don't think Obama can beat Clinton. However, if he can pull off a surprising result in a very early primary or caucus, I think he'll win a number of primaries on Feb. 9. He’ll then have a chance to shake Clinton’s campaign to its very foundation.

Thompson is a bit of an enigma. Maybe that's because he is not yet an announced candidate. He has outstanding communication skills, just as you would expect. He has a commanding presence. It's just not clear how much he really wants to do a long, hard campaign.

Some have speculated about which candidate might be most hurt by a Thompson candidacy. I disagree with those who say former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. I think he'll hurt McCain the most. It will be tough for McCain to regain traction with Thompson in the race.

Republicans will find Thompson very appealing. He’ll have to answer the question about his staying power by performing like a champion. One thing is clear: he's going to turn the race for the Republican nomination on its head.

Who would’ve thought that the Republican nomination picture would be so uncertain? Republicans are in the position Democrats found themselves in during the '70s and '80s. Politics can be strange.

Aug. 21, 2007

11:35 a.m. - Obama Wraps Up

It's interesting that Sen. Barack Obama simply reversed the order of the issues addressed by Sen. Hillary Clinton yesterday. He criticizes the Iraq war early rather than later and he does it in a blunt fashion. Then he focuses on veterans benefits. That's the order you use when you're behind.

A very impressive performance. I don't think he can beat Clinton but here's my assessment of Obama's political skills: He's the real deal.

I will post tomorrow morning and give you my thoughts on Thompson and Obama after I've had a chance to sleep on it.

11:25 a.m. - Obama Is Speaking

Now he returns to the theme of fighting terrorism. He reviews the five-point plan for fighting terrorism he's discussed in other venues.

It was a smart move to criticize the Iraq war early. He can now address the issues to which this audience will warm - taking care of vets, for example. He wins applause when he criticizes bureaucratic snarls in meeting the needs of veterans.

One observation: It's hard to believe that this guy was in the Illinois state Senate just four years ago. He is a very polished political performer. I thought he was off his game a bit in the Democratic debate on ABC on Sunday and showed a little inexperience. That isn't evident in this forum.

11:10 a.m. - Obama Is Speaking

Sen. Barack Obama is being introduced. This will be very interesting. He is not the front runner and so he doesn't have the luxury that Sen. Hillary Clinton had. He can't play it too safe.

How far will he go here in criticizing the war in Iraq? He has quite a challenge in walking the same sort of tightrope that Clinton walked yesterday. The Daily Kos crowd will be watching. He's up.

"Our country must speak with one voice," he says.

He says he knows he's running to be commander in chief. He talks about keeping faith with service men and women.

The star power that everyone talks about is readily apparent.

He acknowledges that dangers in the world directly impact the security of this country. "Threats can no longer be contained by borders," he says.

A very smart move: He focuses on the threat posed by "stateless terrorists."

Obama says we need a civilian leadership that measures up to the service men and women. He forthrightly mentions his opposition to the war in Iraq.

He praises the troops in Iraq. He says there are no good options in Iraq.

Obama is criticizing the war in Iraq in a blunt way that Clinton did not.

9:50 a.m.

There seems to be a growing consensus that the U.S. is making progress in the Anbar province in Iraq. Sen. Hillary Clinton mentioned it yesterday. Former Sen. Fred Thompson mentions it today.

He talks about the aftermath of "defeat" in Iraq: the dangers of "nuclearizing" the world, ethnic cleansing.in Iraq. Defeat won't lead to peace.

It's interesting that Thompson is talking more directly about Iraq and the war on terror than, certainly, Clinton, but also Sen. John McCain. Thompson went right to it and he's talking about it in detail.

He talks about the sacrifices made by veterans of Iraq. He tells a very moving story about a vet who lost his legs in Iraq but nonetheless tells Thompson that he hopes to work for a nonprofit organization because he wants "to give something back."

He has closed. Here is my initial take: He's going to be a very effective candidate. He may drive McCain from the race. The question is: Will he have staying power for a grueling campaign?

9:35 a.m. - Thompson Is Speaking

It's fun to see the guy who starred in the "The Line of Fire" with Clint Eastwood. I wonder if the film-TV thing isn't part of former Sen. Fred Thompson's appeal. If you're on TV, you're a celebrity, right?

He says he left the Senate because he longed for the realism and sincerity of Hollywood. Best laugh line so far.

Thompson has a very commanding presence. He's talking about freedom around the world. He has a huge applause line he's used elsewhere - he's tired of people feeling they have to apologize for the United States of America when America stands for freedom. He does a very good job describing the challenges posed by terrorism.

Is it possible that Thompson will pick up the cudgel if McCain drops out?

9:15 a.m. - What Do Thompson And Obama Need To Accomplish?

We talked yesterday about what Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain needed to do at this convention. Now let’s take a look at the task confronting former Tennessee senator and TV-movie star Fred Thompson and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Thompson is scheduled to speak at 9:30 a.m., Obama at 11 a.m.

Fred Thompson - I don't know if Ole Fred is going to pull up in Ole Red, the pickup truck he drove around in his upset victory in Tennessee in 1994, but he has to do something to build excitement quickly. He's not yet an announced candidate and we're just months away from the Iowa caucuses.

Thompson will be helped considerably by his new campaign director, Bill Lacy. Lacy is the director of the Dole Institute at the University of Kansas. He's taken a leave of absence to run the campaign. Lacy's the real deal and he needs to be. The hour is late and every performance Ole Fred gives has to be Oscar-worthy.

Sen. Barack Obama - Last week wasn't a good one for Obama. The other Democratic candidates spanked the youngster for his lack of experience in foreign affairs. They wept crocodile tears for President Musharraf when Obama said that he wouldn't hesitate to order a strike on terrorist targets in Pakistan if its military couldn't do the job. It was a phony performance on their part but it got a lot of media attention.

Obama needs to show that he's serious about national security. Yes, he wants to withdraw the troops from Iraq but he can be counted on to wage a more effective war on terrorists than the Republicans. He's walking the same tightrope as Hillary: Keep the Shirley MacLaine wing of the party happy for now and his options open for the general election.

More when Thompson speaks.

9 a.m. - Thoughts On Clinton And McCain

We've had some time to think about what Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain had to say yesterday. These two candidates, in my view, gave speeches that met the highest standards of the political practitioner's art - for entirely different reasons, I might add.

The word with respect to Clinton is discipline. She showed why she's the Democratic front-runner. The first 30 minutes of her speech were devoted to veteran benefits and health care, topics that were sure to win the support of her audience. When she finally touched on Iraq, she did so in a fairly subdued manner. I was surprised that she acknowledged progress in the Anbar province. If that's the case, it may be harder for her to urge withdrawal when Gen. David Petraeus reports to Congress.

All in all, Clinton gave a focused, disciplined speech. Hmmm, sounds a little like her husband, first gentleman-in-waiting, Bill Clinton.

The word with respect to McCain is honor. He's simply not going to tack to the political winds to try to save his campaign. I watched this little gem of a political speech for a second time on C-SPAN last night. In a very brief period of time, McCain talked about the valor and difficulty of the service rendered by the troops, the dangers of caving in in Iraq, and his commitment to "standing athwart" public opinion if he has to. He won't be "complicit" in the catastrophe that will befall the United States if it chooses what McCain characterizes as surrender.

His performance provided a reminder of why he has been much admired, and the front runner until quite recently.

Clinton and McCain did very well yesterday. We'll see if former Sen. Fred Thompson and Sen. Barack Obama can do as well today.

Aug. 20, 2007

12:05 p.m. - Sen. John McCain Speaks, Wraps Up

"I have been made sick at heart" by the mistakes made in Iraq, McCain says, but we can't allow that to lead to a far greater mistake.

"This new battle plan is succeeding," he says.

He fears if we don't stay the course, al-Qaeda will be strengthened and genocide will ensue. He won't be "complicit" in the disaster that will befall this country if we are defeated in Iraq.

"We must try to succeed," he says.

"We must not choose to lose" this war, he says.

McCain refers to those service men and women who have had to serve longer deployments. He has known no one who has served better or more bravely than those who serve today.

And with that he wraps up.

A very brief speech. He addresses these kinds of issues as well as anyone in the Republican Party. It isn't clear if his campaign will survive its latest troubles. If it doesn't, the loss will be a serious one for the quality of debate in the Republican primaries and caucuses.

That's it for today. I'll be back tomorrow with comments on Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. Fred Thompson.

11:50 a.m. - Sen. John McCain Speaking, #1

It was no surprise that Sen. John McCain was greeted with an ovation.

He refers to the military service rendered by his grandfather and father.

"The Navy remains the world I know best," he says.

He refers to "Hard Call," his new book.

He describes at some length the horrors of war and what he calls the "secret bond" among veterans.

"When our government forgets to honor you, it is a stain on the honor of our nation," he says.

He rips the "Walter Reed Hospital scandal."

11:35 a.m.

Gen. David Petraeus is reporting on tape from Baghdad.

One thing is immediately apparent: he will be a formidable communicator when he reports to Congress next month.

President Bush would be well-served to let Petraeus report directly and in public. Some recent reports have indicated that Petraeus would speak in closed meetings in Congress and that his report will be prepared in the White House. This will cause the president additional and -- after watching this -- unnecessary political difficulties.

Let Petraeus be Petraeus and let the chips fall where they may.

11:12 a.m. - Sen. Hillary Clinton Wraps Up

She's not sure that there are any good options in Iraq.

She notes that some may disagree on the question of whether a military solution is possible in Iraq. She says she won't support staying in a civil war while the Iraqi government is "on vacation."

"I'm concerned about the spread of global terrorism," she says.

She acknowledges progress is being made in Anbar province in Iraq but says, "We're years too late in changing tactics" in Iraq.

She proposes having 80,000 additional troops in the Army.

Clinton has delivered an effective political speech. She focused on veteran care. She addressed Iraq but in a way that was least offensive to this audience. She obviously has the benefit of being a very strong front-runner -- she can afford to be a little more conservative on national security issues than the Democratic candidates who are pursuing her.

11 a.m.

Sen. Hillary Clinton Wants A GI Bill Of Rights

Sen. Hillary Clinton says that she wants a new GI Bill of Rights. She praises Rep. Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania, a veteran and a co-sponsor for this legislation.

She wants a "seamless career transition program" for returning veterans.

"We need a 21st century system" to coordinate programs for veterans, not "a 20th century bureaucracy," she says.

She's getting quite a bit of applause by focusing on supporting veterans. We're thirty minutes into this speech and she's made no mention of Iraq.

She says we need a candidate who has experience and who is for change. She takes a subtle shot at Obama by saying that with her it's not an "either-or" proposition.

She finally gets to the subject of Iraq. She says that she wants future generations to know that the troops did everything they were asked to do.

10:45 a.m. - Sen. Hillary Clinton Is Speaking, #2

She says that what happened at Walter Reed Hospital is a symptom of a larger problem.

She says that she started the study of Gulf War Illness.

"We have to have a system that tracks the health of every person who serves us," she says. She cites her work in behalf of veterans with South Carolina's conservative Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham.

She is applauded when she says that we need more hospitals and better health care for veterans.

She tells the story of a veteran suffering from traumatic brain injury. She wants to see family members trained and paid by the government for providing care for these kinds of veterans.

She wants a "gold standard" of care for veterans. She says that her Secretary of Veterans Affairs will be a "real advocate" for veterans. She says it’s outrageous that veterans have to come to Congress every year to beg for health care. She'll fight to make it mandatory.

10:32 a.m. - Sen. Hillary Clinton Is Speaking, #1

Sen. Hillary Clinton was given a fairly warm welcome. She thanks the VFW.

Very classy touch -- she praises John McCain as a "great American hero."

She talks about her father's service in World War II. She talks about the sacrifice of service members. She cites the motto of the VFW, "Honor the dead by helping the living."

She says that she has dealt with the complexities of the world as it is, not as she hopes it would be. She says that as president she will stand up every day for the service men and women who have stood up for us. "Every service member is a hero, every single day," she says.

9:30 a.m. - What Do Clinton And McCain Need To Accomplish?

Ok, while I'm listening to New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine urge the VFW to support greater benefits for the National Guards, let me share some thoughts on what Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain need to accomplish at this convention.

Clinton - Clinton has been on a roll for the past couple of weeks. She's well ahead of Barack Obama in the national polls. She's given a pretty strong performance in all of the recent debates.

Clinton's going to try to establish some strong national security chops in this speech. She needs to show she'll be a tough commander-in-chief in the war on terror. At the same time, though, she has to mollify the liberal Daily Kos wing of the Democratic Party. She needs to continue to walk the tightrope.

McCain - You'd have to search a long time to find a more welcoming crowd for McCain than this one. He desperately needs to breathe some life back into his campaign. He is beginning to suffer from a potentially fatal political malady. People are giving up on him.

McCain usually does a good job addressing national security issues. He needs to do that in a forum such as this one to kick start a campaign that's sputtering.

More when Clinton speaks.

9 a.m. - Politicalpalooza At The VFW Convention

The leaders of the Veterans of Foreign Wars have to be a little stunned. This VFW Convention has become a blockbuster political event.

Convention organizers invited the two leading candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties to address the group.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton accepted. She'll speak in about an hour. Sen. Barack Obama also accepted. He'll speak tomorrow.

Republicans Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney begged off due to scheduling conflicts. That opened the door for Arizona Sen. John McCain. He will speak later this morning.

In a masterstroke of timing, convention organizers invited former Tennessee senator and TV-movie star Fred Thompson to fill the other Republican slot. He's expected to announce his candidacy within weeks. He'll speak tomorrow.

President Bush will speak on Wednesday. He's virtually certain to give us a preview of the report on Iraq that General David Petraeus will make to Congress in September.

It's a political horn of plenty.

These convention goers know it. Several thousand of them are here to listen to Sen. Clinton.

They heard from Kansas City Mayor Mark Funkhouser. He said that "the work that the VFW does has never been more important." He received warm applause when, after describing a recent encounter with some homeless Iraq War veterans, he said, "Thank God for the VFW."

Rep. Emanuel Cleaver just spoke. He noted that he had voted for "every single measure that raises the standard of living for our veterans." He got a nice laugh when he told everyone that if they got a parking ticket they should come to his office. One of his staffers would show them the municipal court where they could pay the ticket.

More later.